September 2018 FAF Cattle Feeding Projections

Posted: September 11, 2018

September 2018 FAF Cattle Feeding Projections

Year-to-date domestic production data through the end of last week as compared to 2017:

  • Federally inspected slaughter +2.7%, 22.331 million head
  • Cow slaughter +7.0%, 9.769 million head
  • Carcass weight +0.3%, 812 pounds
  • Beef production +3.0%, 18.125 billion pounds

Changes month over month on our feeding projections:

  • Mostly stronger feeder cattle market (Holsteins +$1.00-3.00/cwt, beef steers +$1.00-3.00/cwt, beef heifers -$4.50 to +$1.50/cwt).
  • Expected fed beef cattle prices mostly stronger with all classes +$1.00-3.00/cwt.
  • Decreased cost of gain (-$1.00/cwt): corn -$0.12/bushel, corn silage -$2.50/ton, corn stalks unchanged, grass hay -$12.00/ton, DDGS +$9.00/ton, MDGS unchanged, and pelleted soy hulls +$20.00/ton.
  • Limited, but mostly upward movement in net profits with modest to substantial profitability for seven of the eight classes of Holsteins and the remaining one sitting just below breakeven.
  • Mixed movement in the profitability outlook for beef steers and heifers with an even split of classes projected in the black and in the red.

As always, please note the difference in cost of gain ($5-12/cwt) and potential profits ($25-100+/head) between the high and low performance projections. Ensuring proper management and animal husbandry can make the world of difference in this regard. Harvest is upon us and bunk and pen management can sometimes be pushed to the wayside in these busy times. Remember to keep this as a priority as profits on well managed cattle are hard to come by in today’s market and virtually impossible to find on those which become a secondary priority.

For more specific projections, please contact your Form-A-Feed representative.